Keywords & Recent Projects

Tropical Cyclones Variability and Predictability | Climate Dynamics and Variability

Caribbean Climate | Statistical Methods | Statistical Downscaling 

Global Climate Models  | Climate and Weather Extremes 

Changes in weekly accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) variance from 1950-2022.

Does tropical cyclone predictability change under global warming?

Under global warming, both tropical cyclone activity and key sources of tropical cyclone predictability are expected to change. This research examines trends in subseasonal TC activity and its modulation by the Madden Julian Oscillation in both reanalyses and global climate models.

How do SSTs force westward extensions in the Pacific subtropical high?

Western extensions of the Pacific subtropical high modulate the steering flow of Western North Pacific tropical cyclones. These westward extensions themselves are driven by large-scale sea surface temperature (SST) gradients. In our recent paper, we examine the mechanisms underlying two very similar SST patterns and the simulated atmospheric response in an atmosphere-only GCM.  A preprint of our manuscript may be found at: 

Relative contributions of Atlantic (ATL), tropical Indian Ocean (TIO), and Pacific (minus ATL+TIO) SST basins to simulated westward extensions driven by two underlying SST gradient patterns (COMP1 and COMP2). 

The first two leading empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of tropical North Atlantic VWS, 1979-2016, indicating a tropical influence (EOF1) versus subtropical influence (EOF2).

Tropical vs subtropical large-scale drivers of vertical wind shear in the tropical North Atlantic: What does this mean for TC activity?

An empirical orthogonal analysis shows that, apart from tropical phenomena, North Atlantic tropical vertical wind shear (VWS) is also consistently driven by subtropical influences.  

Wintertime Rossby wave breaking persistence for extended-range Atlantic TC prediction

In this study, we examine the strong link between winter and summer Rossby wave breaking (RWB) shear impacts and assess whether a winter RWB predictor improves extended-range forecast skill of seasonal North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity.

This published paper can be accessed here: .

August 2022 Rossby Wave Breaking over the North Atlantic basin observed in the 350-K potential vorticity anomaly field. As the Rossby wave breaks, streams of high-PV air move equatorward increasing the deep-layer vertical wind shear in the tropical environment.