Keywords & Recent Projects

Tropical Cyclones Variability and Prediction | Climate Dynamics and Variability

Caribbean Climate | Statistical Methods | Statistical Downscaling 

Global Climate Models  | Climate and Weather Extremes 

How do SSTs force westward extensions in the Pacific subtropical high?

Western extensions of the Pacific subtropical high modulate the steering flow of Western North Pacific tropical cyclones. These westward extensions themselves are driven by large-

June-September 850-hPa geopotential height (Z, contours) and mean sea level pressure (MSLP, shading) outlining the location and positions of the global subtropical highs.
The first two leading empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of tropical North Atlantic VWS, 1979-2016.

Tropical vs subtropical large-scale drivers of vertical wind shear in the tropical North Atlantic: What does this mean for TC activity?

An empirical orthogonal analysis shows that, apart from tropical phenomena, North Atlantic tropical vertical wind shear (VWS) is also consistently driven by subtropical influences.  

Wintertime Rossby wave breaking persistence for extended-range Atlantic TC prediction

In this study, we examine the strong link between winter and summer Rossby wave breaking (RWB) shear impacts and assess whether a winter RWB predictor improves extended-range forecast skill of seasonal North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity.

This published paper can be accessed here: .

August 2022 Rossby Wave Breaking

Increasing the number of sample environments using the CESM1 large ensemble.

Can we use a global climate model large ensemble to examine drivers of VWS under ENSO-neutral conditions?

While reanalysis datasets have been useful in examining VWS under El Niño and La Niña conditions, there may not be enough samples to examine shear under ENSO-neutral conditions. Therefore, we turn to the 35-member CESM1 large ensemble. In this study, we assess the large ensemble's ability to capture key drivers of VWS (see above paper), and what remains of the variability when the predominant driver (ENSO) is removed.